Reality Check: A Billion Humanoid Robots By 2040? Doubtful.
One only needs to look at the promises made by the Autonomous Vehicle Industry in the 2010s, which still have not panned out.
Aaron’s Thoughts On The Week
“Listening to Bill Gates, Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking talk about artificial intelligence reminds me of the Jurassic Park scene where they talk about chaos theory.” ~Dave Waters
So, was 2023 the Year of the Humanoid Robot, or is 2024 the Year of the Humanoid Robot? 2025 may be the Year of the Humanoid Robot after Elon Musk stated he sees Tesla selling their Optimus humanoid robot by the end of that year. Maybe we should go ahead and label the entire decade the DECADE OF THE HUMANOIDS™ and call it a day.
We are undoubtedly seeing a rise in humanoid robots as hardware and software continue to improve. Breakthroughs by companies like NVIDIA are not only making the idea of a Rosie the Robot or C-3PO more of a reality, but they are also starting to raise some serious concerns.
This is why when people like Elon Musk or Midjourney’s David Holz state that we will have a billion humanoids by 2040, it is time for a serious reality check. This thinking got the Autonomous Vehicle industry in the trouble it is today.
The Failed Promises of AVs
In 2009, before Google became Alphabet, the company started developing self-driving cars and established a secretive autonomous vehicle division. They used their mapping technology and purchased 100 Toyota Priuses to optimize Street View and gain insights into self-driving cars. After years of development and iterations, Waymo was created and is now known as one of the most prominent autonomous vehicle companies in the world. Waymo vehicles operate as taxis in San Francisco, but the journey to get here was challenging.
Waymo has been at the forefront of autonomous technology, clocking millions of miles on public roads and refining its self-driving systems. If you live in major cities, chances are you have seen one of their vehicles. However, for years, the company struggled with certain aspects, like safety.
It's interesting that Google had to explain and justify its autonomous car crashes, revealing one of the biggest flaws in artificial intelligence. Waymo's progress serves as a beacon of hope, inspiring others to pursue self-driving cars. It's one successful example, but many other startups in this field have failed.
Let's imagine a philosophical dilemma: you're boarding a plane and notice there's no pilot, only a computer. Would you fly? Even though an aircraft can theoretically fly itself, passengers still feel technology hasn't advanced enough to replace a pilot.
The problem with AI is that driving doesn't just require a set of algorithms but the ability to adapt to changing scenarios. Autonomous vehicles have taken a step back because they require ideal conditions, which rarely happen. When scenarios change, autonomous cars can end up in a crash. Since it's new technology, the world will scrutinize any accidents harshly. There have been some fatalities involving autonomous vehicles, which sounds tragic, but there are 40,000 highway deaths in the US alone every year. If we want AI to take over driving, we need to make it safer, but we don't have the conditions yet.
Many hyped autonomous vehicles, including Elon Musk. Everyone, from small startups to big investors, was in on the self-driving car trend. However, let's remember that even Waymo's CEO, John Krafcik, said in 2018 that a self-driving car was a long way from happening.
Investors have realized that even promising startups like Cruise, backed by GM and Honda, can need more time to deliver on their plans. For instance, their plan to release a self-driving mass market car by 2021 has yet to happen. It may never occur after California regulators shut down Cruise’s operations after a fatal accident and what many saw as a coverup by Cruise executives.
The Autonomous Vehicle industry is just the first warning to those that promise a billion humanoids by 2040.
Lack of Regulations and Standards
This leads to the next hurdle for humanoid robots is similar to another issue that is growing for Artificial Intelligence and Robotics in general - a current lack of regulations or standards. The only way humanoid robots will start walking amongst us on any scale will be when Regulators allow them to. Period. Full Stop.
To be clear, when it comes to Industrial Robots, we have a great set of Standards from organizations like ANSI/A3, ASTM, ISO, UL, and other Standards Development Organizations that regulators like OSHA can use and reference. Third-party labs can certify a robot to these standards if required. This is one of the main reasons we are seeing humanoid robots' first pilots being in industrial settings. However, even with industrial robots new standards are being created or updated on a regular basis to stay up to date with the technology. I spent a good part of my week in Korea this week to help develop a new interoperability standard for robotics, specifically focused on mobile robots. The good news is that one humanoid company participated in this work.
The issue is that to reach a billion humanoid robots by 2040, humanoids must expand beyond industrial settings. It is estimated that there are only 450-500 million people in the world who work in factories. Most modern-day robotic technology will slowly replace those workers as more countries face shrinking workforces. The same number of people worldwide work in logistics and transportation and will likely be replaced by non-humanoid robots. So that means humanoids would need to enter the public sphere, and that is where the regulator and standard framework gets thin.
When we look at public space, we see a massive patchwork of municipal, state, and national regulations regarding robots in public space. Recently, Knoxville, Tennessee, banned delivery robots while the University of Tennessee, which is surrounded by the city, allows them. Even San Francisco and Toronto, which first accepted delivery robots, have done an about-face and have restricted their use.
This patchwork of regulations in the public space will make it very difficult for humanoids to be seen as valuable if they are banned from specific areas. Do humanoid companies have the bandwidth and the money to go to every city and state to get their humanoid approved?
Meet The Consumer Product Safety Commission
Many have also suggested that we could reach this point if people bought their own humanoid robots for the home. Many of us have purchased and use robot vacuum cleaners in our homes. This, though, brings a new regulatory framework into play. In most countries, consumer protection laws and agencies allow certain products not to be sold or recalled if found defective.
The appropriately named Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) is the leading agency for consumers in the United States. Other countries have similar agencies. The CPSC has numerous responsibilities and works closely with standards development organizations like ASTM, ANSI, and UL to protect consumers. CPSC has recently added AI and IoT to its coverage for public consumers. In 2023, the CPSC recalled 22,000 pool-cleaning robots due to overheating batteries.
If humanoids are going to enter the home, expect regulatory bodies such as the CPSC to start asking serious questions about their overall safety. Similar to how OSHA leverages industrial robot standards, the CPSC will leverage any standards approved through consensus and public input.
A Skeptical Public
This, though, will be the biggest hurdle to any promise of a billion humanoid robots by 2040 - a highly skeptical public.
As humans, we all have had conversations about robots and artificial intelligence. However, skepticism about robotics and AI is more common in Western countries than in Eastern countries like Japan and South Korea. In Hollywood sci-fi movies, robots tend to be portrayed as humanity's natural enemy, and their survival comes at the cost of humanity's destruction. However, in Japan, robots are often shown as companions rather than adversaries. Also, when Japanese animators project into the future, robots are an integral part of it, rather than the primary obstacle. The Japanese view technology as an extension of humanity's will rather than a threat to it. This may explain why the Astro Boy series, which features a non-human protagonist, has been one of Japan's most successful anime franchises since its serialization in 1952, with over $3 billion in merchandise sales. In this series, the titular hero is a robot who fights human villains, which defies any storytelling logic of the West.
Then there are those that don’t help change minds like this Ohio company that introduced a robotic dog with a flamethrower on his back, which is our Video of the Week. Some of the comments on one Reddit thread were brutal with many getting thousands of “upvotes”:
They forgot to include clip of it stomping a human skull.
"What could go wrong?"
"... Suggested uses include wildlife control and ice removal." what a bunch of bull!
“Not advertised as a weapon”. - Aw, that’s cute, look at them trying to avoid legal responsibility when some nutjob uses their product to commit arson or murder.
Horrors beyond my comprehension
These feelings are not going to change much by 2040. Even though younger generations are more open to robotics and AI according to one poll, that most leaders who are making the final decision will still be older in 2040, I don’t see enough change for a billion humanoids to happen.
The Potential Wild Card: China
If there is a place where a billion humanoid robots could become a reality by 2040, it could be China. However, that would be because their government is more likely to force humanoids upon their country, which isn’t an approach many of us would want to agree to.
I hope that the majority of the global robotics community wants to see humanoids welcomed into the world because they are wanted by the world, not forced to accept them. Recently, a Waymo Autonomous Vehicle was set ablaze by a crowd after it went down a road full of people. It is still questionable if this was an intended act or just a flashpoint of anger by the crowd, but it points to humans not hesitating in acting out on unwanted technology.
So the question will be if China is allowed to dominate the humanoid market because they will be given faster clearance to do so, or will the West work within our democratic institutions that allow civil discussions to set parameters that allow humanoid robots and humans to work together across both private and public space. That is the only way we will get to a billion humanoid robots. However, getting there by 2040, based on our track record of false starts, technocrat hubris, and a skeptical public should make us all skeptical of any claims of the such.
Robot News Of The Week
Serve Robotics Hauls In $40M and Prepares to Put 2,000 Robots on Streets
Serve, a robotics company specializing in restaurant item delivery, recently debuted with shareholders’ $40 million investment on the stock exchange. This brings their total fundraising since 2021 to $93 million, with plans to expand operations in Los Angeles and enter new markets like Dallas, San Diego, and Vancouver. Serve aims to deploy 2,000 robots by 2025, formalizing a partnership with Magna International for manufacturing. Key value propositions include safety, labor savings, and the adorability factor of robots. Despite being in a pre-revenue stage, Serve remains optimistic about consumer adoption, with plans to generate revenue through advertising on the robots. Competition exists, notably from Starship Technologies, but Serve believes it has an edge with its autonomous delivery capabilities. With the belief that autonomous delivery will become commonplace, Serve is poised to scale up when adoption increases.
Korean robot startup aims to transform human walking
South Korean robotics startup WIRobotics has designed a wearable robot called WIM, which aims to enhance walking and physical abilities. WIM is a compact belt-pack device with two arms that stick out to assist each leg, reducing walking energy by 20%. The device weighs only 1.6 kilograms and has AI technology to identify the user's motion and terrain within 0.2 seconds. WIM offers a deep analysis of the user's gait performance and targets not only older people and patients who find difficulties with walking but also those who want to boost their performance. WIRobotics aims to sell at least 1,000 WIM units and achieve sales of 3 billion won.
Tallinn-based 10Lines secures €1.5 million to automate line marking operations with AI and robotics
10Lines, a company based in Estonia, recently announced that it has raised €1.5 million in its latest investment round, led by Tera Ventures and Karista, with participation from Butterfly Ventures and Mike Oliinyk. The company uses robotics and AI to automate line marking operations, resulting in greater efficiency and cost savings for operators. The investment will help 10Lines expand its team, develop autonomous robots and software, and strengthen its market presence in the US and Europe.
Robot Research In The News
DARPA Expands RACER Robotic Fleet With Heavy Platform Demonstration
DARPA demonstrated the off-road autonomy of 12-ton vehicles as part of its RACER program. The vehicles have the Textron M5 base platform and are expected to complement the RACER Fleet Vehicles. The RACER program aims for platform-agnostic autonomy in complex, mission-relevant off-road environments. The University of Washington, Overland AI, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Offroad Autonomy, Georgia Institute of Technology, and Duality Robotics worked as RACER Phase 2 performer teams.
Learning robust autonomous navigation and locomotion for wheeled-legged robots
Researchers have developed a hybrid wheeled-legged robot that can smoothly transition between walking and driving modes. This robot can navigate challenging terrain and dynamic obstacles, including pedestrians, and has successfully addressed many challenges associated with robotic urban mobility. The robot was tested for large-scale navigation through an autonomous trek of more than 10 kilometers in Zurich, Switzerland, and Seville, Spain.
Robot Workforce Stories Of The Week
Robotics Championship Prepares Students for STEM Success
Brig. Gen. Christopher Amrhein attended the First Robotics Championship in Houston, Texas. He participated in a panel on leveraging FIRST experience for future employment and enlistment opportunities in the US Air Force. He also visited the Enhanced Cognitive Human Ops Activation to meet with local recruiters and engaged with Space Force Recruiters at the Innovation Fair.
Career centers get $300M from Ohio as enrollment booms
Ohio has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in career tech centers, and as a result, enrollment has been booming. According to the Ohio Department of Education and Workforce, enrollment in Ohio's career tech centers has increased by 17% from the 2020-2021 school year to the 2022-2023 school year, and it's expected to continue to rise.
To accommodate the growing number of students, vocational schools need more space and equipment for their classes. To address this need, Ohio has allocated $200 million for facilities and $100 million for machinery and equipment during the 2023-2024 fiscal year.
Robot Video Of The Week
You can now have your very own flame-throwing robot. It's called the “Thermonator” and the remote-control robot dog just hit the market with a price tag of $9,420. It has a built-in tank for gasoline or napalm. It also shoots flames 30 feet out. The Ohio-based company selling the “Thermonator” claims the robot dog is useful for snow and ice removal. If you live in Maryland, do not even think about getting one. It's the only state where flamethrowers are illegal.
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