Here Comes 2024!

Regardless if you like it or not.

Dec 15, 2023

Any new beginning is forged from the shards of the past, not from the abandonment of the past. - Craig D. Lounsbrough

Next week, we will close out 2023 with our recap of the year that was. However before we do that, let’s talk about what we think will happen in 2024 based on 2023. Of course, these are all educated guesses, but let’s have some fun.

The Autonomous Vehicle Continues To Get Cold Water Pour On It

I will go on the record that I don’t see Cruise surviving in its current form by this time next year. This week, they slashed 24% of their workforce including key leadership positions. What is infuriating is that it is the lack of a safety culture from those leaders that cost those estimated 900 workers their jobs. Unfortunately, I don’t see this as the last round of layoffs. More than likely GM will pull Cruise into itself and rebrand it as a GM product NOT called Cruise and slowly will relaunch it as they right the ship.

As for the rest of the industry, I see regulators getting much more aggressive with those in the AV industry. The issue will be will the industry take their medicine and agree to a regulatory framework where they and the regulators can come to some common ground or will they run to lower regulated states and territories to keep plugging along? I hope it is the former and not the latter. The latter, in my opinion, will only speed up their downfall and show the industry learned nothing from the Cruise incident.

Robot Sales Rebound, But Not A Record Year

2023 will not go down as the best year for robot sales. Coming off record years to hit a cooling economy with high interest rates did no one any favors. With that said, people are still looking to automate. Projects just got accelerated due to the pandemic. Some projects that were planned for 2023, were actually done in 2022 or even 2021 because the pandemic moved up the timeline.

The good news is now that everyone have finally caught their breathe, they are starting to look at new use cases to automate. I know that I am already scheduling a bunch of visits to firms who want to do some walk throughs of their facilities and see what is possible. So I see 2024 seeing higher sales, but nothing like the pandemic years. If anything, 2024 will be the set up year for the biggest sales year for robotics in 2025.

LLMs and Robotics Continue To Merge

Here at the end of 2023 we saw both Boston Dynamics’ SPOT and Agility Robotics’ DIGIT leverage Large Language Models (LLMs). I expect more robots to be given capabilities using LLMs. Either being able to communicate with humans or by being able to take instructions through language inputs. Hopefully those warehouse robots don’t start to gossip about their fellow workers.

More Public Facing Robots Enter Service

Disney has already made it clear that visitors to their parks will encounter more robots as part of the experience. But you will not have to visit their parks with your kids or grandparents to come across robots outside of the factory or warehouse. More and more of the general public will encounter robots. From delivery robots to security robots to waiter robots, the number of use cases for public robots continue to grow and expand. The issue will be the growing divide between those communities that embrace robotics and those that do not. I do think we will still get stories about certain cities that ban public robots from certain use cases, but those will be the exception as most embrace them and even highlight them to show off how they are embracing technology.

Singapore Is Using a Robotic Dog to Enforce Proper Social Distancing During COVID-19 | Smart News| Smithsonian Magazine

Standards Organizations and Regulators Start To Catch Up

Finally, we are going to see Standards Development Organizations (SDOs), like ISO, ANSI, ASTM, and UL, to start publishing new and/or updated robot standards than then will be leveraged by regulators. There are already many work items in development during 2023 that are entering their final phases to becoming standards in 2024. Work items are like Bills in Congress - until they are approved and signed off do they become Standards (Laws.)

The newly update ISO 10218, which is the basis for nearly every robot safety standard in the world will start to shake up the industry and bring it in better alignment since its last update (which was before cobots took off). There will also be new standards for end effectors and legged robots.

There will still be plenty of work to continue to do, but similar to how the pandemic impact robot sales, standards work got slowed down and the surge of publications are about to come. Expect a lot in 2024 as nearly two years of pent up work comes to a head.

What Do You Think?

So what are your thoughts for 2024? Do you agree with me? What are your predications? Make sure to share them.

Robot News Of The Week

Agility is using large language models to communicate with its humanoid robots

In mid-October, as Amazon initiated trials of Agility Robotics' 5-foot, 9-inch walking bots, these bright blue autonomous workers appeared more intelligent than their actual capabilities.

"At present, the robots lack self-awareness and aren't leveraging extensive language models," noted Agility CEO Damion Shelton during that period.

However, in just two months, this situation has evolved.

In a recent "Embodied AI" demonstration released on Wednesday, Digit showcased a notable transformation, responding to a casual verbal cue from an engineer within a two-minute timeframe.

Chipotle invests in Greenfield Robotics and Nitricity

Chipotle Mexican Grill, the American fast-casual restaurant chain, is set to contribute to the advancement of farming by investing in Greenfield Robotics and Nitricity.

Greenfield Robotics specializes in enhancing regenerative farming practices by leveraging cutting-edge AI, robotics, and sensing technologies.

Meanwhile, Nitricity aims to combat greenhouse gas emissions by developing fertilizer products that prioritize the well-being of fields, farmers, and the environment.

These strategic investments stem from Chipotle's $50 million venture fund, Cultivate Next. This fund was established to support early-stage companies aligning with Chipotle's mission of "cultivating a better world" while facilitating the restaurant brand's expansion plans.

With an autonomous robot fleet, Greenfield Robotics offers regenerative agriculture solutions, eliminating the need for chemical-based interventions.

XtalPi and ABB Robotics to automate laboratory workstations with GoFa cobots

Laboratory automation streamlines repetitive yet meticulous procedures. This week, XtalPi and ABB Robotics unveiled their strategic alliance to develop a series of automated laboratory workstations in China.

Their collaboration integrates ABB's GoFa collaborative robots with XtalPi's software, aiming to enhance productivity in biopharmaceuticals, chemical engineering, chemistry, and new-energy materials research and development.

Chenxi Zhang, XtalPi's director of automation product management, highlighted the potential of their partnership with ABB: "By merging XtalPi's intelligent software system and industry expertise with ABB's robotics proficiency, we aim to elevate laboratory efficiency through a human-robot integration model, particularly benefiting the pharmaceutical sector."

Zhang emphasized the joint offering's capacity to drive the adoption of robotics and AI within scientific domains. Mordor Intelligence forecasts substantial growth in the global laboratory robotics market, estimating an increase from $185.8 million in 2020 to approximately $274.49 million by 2026, fueled by demands for precision and safety in laboratory operations.

Robots in the ranks: Army integrating robots in two platoons

Soldiers at the Maneuver Center of Excellence and the National Training Center are trialing innovative platoon setups merging robots and tech in high-risk combat scenarios. The MCOE Experimental Company, 1st Battalion, 29th Infantry Regiment, 316th, recently executed an urban assault, where robots assumed the forefront instead of human soldiers.

During this operation, 20 soldiers accompanied by four robotic vehicles successfully navigated open terrain toward the targeted building. Robots equipped with smoke generators first deployed a screening cover, enabling the team's advancement across

Robot Research In The News

Cognitive strategies for augmenting the body with a wearable, robotic arm

Neuroengineer Silvestro Micera pioneers cutting-edge tech solutions aiding individuals to regain lost sensory and motor functions due to trauma or neurological issues. In a groundbreaking study published in Science Robotics, Micera explores enhancing human capabilities through technology, introducing a third robotic arm controlled by monitoring diaphragm movement.

"This study opens up new and exciting opportunities, showing that extra arms can be extensively controlled and that simultaneous control with both natural arms is possible," explains Micera, Bertarelli Foundation Chair in Translational Neuroengineering at EPFL and professor of Bioelectronics at Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna. The research, a part of the Third-Arm project, aims to deploy wearable robotic arms for daily tasks or search and rescue efforts. Micera sees this exploration of third-arm cognitive control as a pathway to deeper comprehension of the human brain's capabilities.

Gathering more effective human demonstrations to teach robots new skills

For robots to effectively aid humans in real-world scenarios, they must possess the ability to acquire new skills and adapt their actions according to users' varying needs. A potential approach to achieve this involves crafting computational methods enabling robots to learn from human demonstrations. For instance, by observing videos depicting someone washing dishes, a robot could learn and replicate the sequence of actions. Recently, researchers from the University of British Columbia, Carnegie Mellon University, Monash University, and the University of Victoria embarked on a quest to amass more dependable data for training robots through demonstrations. Their paper, shared on the arXiv preprint server, demonstrates that the collected data significantly enhances the efficiency of robots learning from human user demonstrations.

Robot Workforce Story Of The Week

Google announces grant money for AI, robotics clubs in Va. schools

The future of robotics and artificial intelligence could be driven by some D.C.-area middle school students, with help from an investment from Google.

At a hands-on event Monday at Herndon Middle School, about 40 students had the chance to make a robot with the help of Google engineers. The company used the event to announce grants to start robotics and AI clubs in Virginia schools, including one at Herndon Middle School.

Robot Video Of The Week

Another week, another humanoid doing new things. Looks like Elon wanted to distract away from either issues and so Telsa released a update video for their unit.