Humanoids Are Sitting At The Top of "Mount Stupid" Now

Thanks to Tech Bros, Wall Street Analysts, and Social Influencers, Humanoids Are About To Fall Deep Into The Valley Of Despair

Aaron’s Thoughts On The Week

“One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision” - British philosopher Bertrand Russell

You may have heard recently that Humanoids will be the next big thing. I am even leading a Humanoid Study Group under IEEE to help determine what is needed to really bring these types of robots to market through a standards framework. This will help to ensure regulator agencies have the correct information and tools to ensure these robots comply with safety and use regulations when deployed. Unfortunately, the hype being created by social media types and so-called Wall Street insiders is not only making my and my colleagues’ jobs more difficult, but they are doing a massive disservice to the humanoid sector by pushing them into “overpromise and underdelivery” futures that are going to be hard to dig out from.

Now, before many of you accuse me of being one of the social media types promoting humanoids on my various feeds, I hope you have seen some of my skepticism as well. On one hand, I do see places where humanoids will make a lot of sense. There are some nice humanoid pilots underway by several companies and the results show promise. However, on the other hand, I see that humanoids are now at the top of Mount Stupid on the hype cycle with too many so-called “experts” saying a lot of stupid stuff, and it has gotten so ridiculous it needs to be called out because the fall into the Valley of Despair will be big if you go too far up Mount Stupid.

Wall Street “Know Nothings”

As e-commerce started to take off, retailers began widely promoting "free shipping" on online purchases in the early-to-mid 2000s as e-commerce gained traction. The practice became a competitive differentiator, with Amazon leading the charge by introducing Free Super Saver Shipping in 2002 for orders over a certain amount. This initiative significantly influenced customer expectations across the industry.

As an up-and-coming Advisor to senior leadership at FedEx, I remember sitting on an earnings call with our C-Suite and a group of Wall Street Analysts when I heard the stupidest question I had ever heard - “How is FedEx going to make any money with Free Shipping?”

At first, there was a lot of laughter in the room. Then, it became clear that this person was serious. Our CEO and founder, Fred Smith, had to explain to the analyst (who we later learned attended Harvard Business School) that retailers had just added the shipping into the product's final price and hid the real shipping price. FedEx was getting paid regardless, but the free shipping was a marketing gimmick.

This single event taught me everything I needed to know about Wall Street Analysts. They were just a part of the hype machine and brought no real value to the reality of the situation. They parrot corporate talking points and do very little if any research, especially research that may point to something very negative.

An example of this is how Wall Street analysts predominantly issue "buy" recommendations over "sell" ones. According to a 2021 report by FactSet, 55% of S&P 500 stock ratings were "buys," 38% were "holds," and only 7% were "sells."

This trend reflects a general reluctance among analysts to assign "sell" ratings, often due to potential conflicts of interest and pressures from the companies they cover. Consequently, "buy" recommendations are more common, while "sell" ratings remain relatively rare.

This week, Wall Street analysts made some news about humanoids. One Bank of America analyst claimed that Tesla’s Humanoid work was having him put a BUY on the stock, which alone makes me question everything else he says. The other was a big report from Citi, which did a better job of describing the current state of humanoids but still made some questionable claims. Let’s break them both down.

“Quoting Elon Musk is not good research.”

This is a quote from my friend and fellow Humanoid Study Group member Robert Little. He has a lot of insight into the field of robotics, which is why I lean more on his advice than many others. So when the Bank of America analyst quoted Elon in his report on why he was lifting his price target on Tesla by $50 to $400 a share, I had to chuckle.

Musk called Optimus "the most advanced humanoid robot by a long shot" during Tesla's late-October earnings call. He said Tesla was the "only company that really has all of the ingredients necessary to scale humanoid robots." That is not only incorrect, it is pretty much a lie, and my guess is Elon knows that.

At this year’s 2024 World Robot Conference in Beijing, over 27 humanoids were shown. Most of them moved around the show floor, interacting with visitors and doing their thing. Optimus was behind glass on display doing absolutely nothing.

If Optimus was indeed the most advanced Humanoid, then why wasn’t he doing anything?

At the recent IEEE Humanoid conference, a theme amongst many attendees is that Elon is not doing the Humanoid ecosystem any favors. When one speaker from another big robotics player said that listening to Elon about the future of humanoids is not only stupid, it could be dangerous. He got a round of applause.

A Chinese presenter at the conference used Optimus as their benchmark and showed how far ahead they were. So, yes, China was flexing about its humanoid industry versus the rest of the world. I can’t fault them for that because they are in the lead in many ways.

It should be noted that Optimus was not at the IEEE Humanoid conference, even though humanoids from Unitree, PAL, Disney, and several others were present. However, some Tesla team members attended, learning and networking with the rest of us.

With Tesla continuing to get caught in situations that show them doing more “tricks” than actual breakthroughs around humanoids, I expect more people in the humanoids field to push back against Elon’s claims. Unfortunately, Wall Street isn’t going to listen to those that know the actual ground truth, because that may force them to not issue those “BUY” ratings. HA! Who are we kidding!? They would issue a “BUY” even if a company was on the verge of bankruptcy!

Citi’s 7 Trillion Humanoid Market Claim

Now, the Citi Global Insights report that generated a lot of media buzz had some more research behind it and even called out some of the ridiculous claims of billions of humanoids in a couple of years. However, the claim of humanoids being a $7 Trillion market by 2050 (in 25 years) was still too much of a stretch and it was because they focused too much on the potential of humanoids in the home.

While I will praise the Citi team for their research in identifying over 50 humanoids, the Humanoid Study Group has already passed the 100 different humanoids identified mark. With over 70 members working in the Study Group on our final report coming in 2025, we have more insights collected around capabilities and actual results than the Citi team does. So let me toot our own horn about everything we see compared to the Citi team.

The Study Group agrees with the Citi team that humanoids will first make breakthroughs in industrial applications. That is where the majority of the pilots are happening, and that is where some earlier promises. Also, the regulatory and standards frameworks are closer to reality for humanoids in these industry applications than anywhere else. So there is a much more straightforward pathway in Industrial applications on both the use case and just being allowed by companies front for humanoids than anywhere else. This will be highlighted in our report.

Interestingly, our top three robot news stories below show three different applications where robots are doing just fine. Many say humanoids are going to do those same applications. I would ask then, how is your humanoid any better at the task than the robot already doing it?

Another area of agreement is that China is the leader in this space and will be able to do certain things with humanoids that can’t be done in the West. This will give China a huge advantage in the future and, in the near term, push the technology forward. The Citi team shows this in their report, with Asia accounting for two-thirds of projected deployments, with most of that in China.

However, when it comes to Humanoids in the Home, especially in the West, the pathway is very murky, if not just dark, right now. The Study Group will show everything that will hold those deployments back, and it appears that the Citi team was unaware of these issues or could not quantify the role they will play in holding humanoids back. This will make the $7 Trillion mark hard to hit when Citi projects that Humanoids in the Home is what will get us to that number.

In September, I wrote an article about how hard the Home Robot sector was. In that article, I pointed out that even after 20 years of robot vacuums on the market, less than 20% of homes have one even as prices have plummeted. One can pick up a Eufy RoboVac 11S for $129.99 on Amazon right now. The Citi team cited the same market penetration data point, which undercut their point that we will see millions of humanoids in the home. Sorry, but if we still can’t convince the majority of households to hand over one of the top chores in the home to a robotic disk for a hundred bucks, then how are we going to convince any grand number to bring a large robot into their home for thousands of dollars?

Uninformed Influencers and Politicians

Finally, the growing number of influencers hyping up humanoids will turn off the general public in more ways than we can predict. The recent post of Optimus with Kim Kardashian told me we are now at the top of Mount Stupid. With millions of views across all of her social media channels, it painted absolutely the wrong picture about Humanoids and their capabilities.

Like with previous Optimus videos, there was no note to state if the robot was being teleoperated (which it was) or, in this case, if Kardashian was being compensated by Tesla for the video. So misleading moves all around to millions of people who may not understand the tech’s true capabilities.

Also, after the video came out, many commented that humanoids would just be for the Billionaire class. They would be the only ones who could afford them, and they would use them in their companies to displace workers. So, thanks to all of these tech bros, Wall Street types, and celebrity influencers, people are starting to get this message. These humanoids are not only something you will never have yourself, but they may take your job. Is this the message we want to be giving to humanoids as we try and get to addressing the societal concerns that will hold humanoids back?

British Conservative politician Chris Philip made matters worse for humanoids and robotics in general when he claimed that the UK should use more robots than import migrant labor. Now while true that there is a rush to automate more tasks like fruit and vegatable picking due to shrinking labor polls across the globe, Mr. Philip first should have looked at how far behind the UK is in the space and realized that it is going to be years before the UK will have robots doing that work.

Philip's comments raised the growing fears that robots (and AI) will replace people in the workforce against their will. Many countered Philip’s comments with solid rebuttals, but it is hard to cut through his “bumper sticker” quote of “Hire robots instead of migrant workers” to this from Jim Moore at HR consultancy firm Hamilton Nash:

“Suggesting that employers should simply replace migrant workers with robots oversimplifies a complex workforce challenge. While automation and AI can help to boost productivity in certain areas, they aren't a direct substitute for human workers in many sectors. The decision between investing in technology or hiring workers – whether domestic or international – isn't an either/or choice. It requires careful analysis of business needs, available skills, and long-term strategy. HR teams need to work out where automation could genuinely improve efficiency, and where human skills and judgment are essential.”

While Philip did not specifically point to humanoids, many articles and social media post put pictures of humanoids beside his quote. This article mentioned Figure AI’s humanoid in BMW facilities and West Japan Railway’s humanoid that is being used to maintain railways to dive into Philip’s comments.

One key topic the Humanoid Study Group will address is the mental safety humanoids present to people. It is one thing to be worried about being around a robot arm that is welding or picking and placing items versus a robot that is walking around and looks a lot like you. These influencers with their short misleading videos and government officials saying very uninformed stuff is just going to make the public even more distrustful of robotics especially humanoids.

The Valley Of Despair Is Coming

Humanoids are still literally getting their legs underneath them. There is still a lot of work to do. As more pilots are done, disillusionment will start to kick in as some of the pilots fail, potentially spectacularly, like in our Video of the Week below.

I will say that many of the 100+ humanoids the Study Group has identified will not make it past 2025. In the coming months, we will probably have a humanoid company or two go under. The threat of a potential global trade war could set the robotics industry back. If we enter a recession, the international appetite for funding what is still very much a technology coming out of the lab could go into a Winter phase as AI did many years ago.

However, to reach the Hype Cycle's end and become a solid technology for the massive, one has to go through the Valley of Despair. My concern is that we are going so far up Mount Stupid with some of these claims will drive us so far into the Valley that it will take much longer and require much more to get humanoids out of.

Autonomous vehicles (AV) and collaborative robots all had periods of overpromising and under-delivering. For collaborative robots (aka cobots), the pushing of “you don’t need a cage” slogan. When end users realized it was the application itself and not the robot that determined if you needed a cage, we had a lot of pissed-off users. They felt misled and, for many, put cobot deployments on ice until they better understood their applications and which ones were actually collaborative in nature and would benefit from a cobot. We are starting to see solid cobot deployments now, but what was promised years ago has yet to arrive because of the disillusionment. Many firms did not make it while some got absorbed into larger robot firms.

The same disillusionment has occurred on the AV side, with regulatory agencies having to shut some operations down after serious incidents. There are also now active groups working against the AV industry due to their history of lack of transparency in their tech’s capabilities and the potential threat to people both physically (getting them killed) and financially (taking jobs). This is what misleading statements can do, the build opposition with their own sometimes misleading talking points.

The claims by many humanoids to be able to do everything in our human world soon are just setting up a bigger fall. It makes people worried about their jobs and whether they are safe around them. When some of these initial pilots fail, I expect many in the C-Suite to pull back funding for future pilots. I’ve been in those meetings and they are not pretty. However hopefully, in all of this, we don’t have an incident where a humanoid hurts a person, especially a child. If that happens, we can only hope that the Humanoid Winter only lasts till 2050.

We need to choose our words wisely about humanoid and their potential and we need to be honest with the public about that potential, even if we aren’t there yet.

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Robot News Of The Week

AMP Robotics raises $91M to accelerate deployment of recycling systems

AMP Robotics Corp., based in Louisville, Colo., has raised $91 million in Series D funding to expand the deployment of its AMP ONE systems. These systems use AI and robotics to sort municipal solid waste (MSW) to modernize recycling processes and improve sustainability.

“Recycling rates have stalled in the U.S., despite its economic and environmental benefits,” said AMP founder Matanya Horowitz. The funding will help AMP take on larger projects, reduce sorting costs, recover more material value, and extend landfill life while optimizing waste management strategies.

Founded in 2014, AMP Robotics has processed over 2.5 million tons of recyclables and identified 150 billion items using its AI platform. Its deep learning technology identifies recyclables in real-time through advanced pattern recognition, enabling more efficient and cost-effective resource recovery.

Initially focused on retrofitting existing recycling facilities with sorting robots, AMP has since developed full-scale facilities requiring minimal manual sorting. These facilities now extend to MSW sorting, capturing billions of dollars in materials previously lost to landfills or incineration.

With more than 400 AI systems across North America, Asia, and Europe, AMP continues transforming waste management by making recycling safer, more efficient, and economically viable.

Locus Robotics and GEODIS Achieve Major Milestone with 10 Million Units Picked at U.S. Distribution Site

Locus Robotics, a leader in warehouse automation, announced that its partner GEODIS, a global logistics provider, has surpassed 10 million units picked using Locus's automation solution at its Carlisle, Pa., distribution center. This milestone underscores the transformative impact of Locus's technology on productivity, efficiency, and workplace safety.

"GEODIS has set new benchmarks for speed and efficiency," said Locus Robotics CEO Rick Faulk. "Our automation not only boosts productivity but also enhances workplace ergonomics and employee safety."

Established in 2018, the partnership has resulted in over 100 million units picked globally across GEODIS’s operations. The Carlisle facility, a 575,000-square-foot center, supports omnichannel order fulfillment for a major consumer electronics company in the Midwest and Eastern U.S.

With peak holiday shipping in full swing, Kevin Stock, GEODIS's EVP of Engineering, highlighted the critical role of automation in managing increased volumes efficiently, ensuring supply chain health year-round.

In 2022, GEODIS expanded its agreement with Locus Robotics to deploy 1,000 LocusBots worldwide, marking one of the largest autonomous mobile robot deals in the industry.

Four Growers: AI And Robotics Company Raises $9 Million

Four Growers, a company creating harvesting robots to lower greenhouse production costs, announced a $9 million Series A funding round led by Basset Capital, with backing from Ospraie Ag Science, Y Combinator, and other investors. The funding will accelerate production of its GR-100 robotic harvester and expand operations in Europe, North America, and Oceania.

The GR-100 uses AI-powered technology to harvest crops with 98% accuracy, detecting ripeness and optimizing techniques. It is 5 times faster than other solutions, revolutionizing the harvesting of fruits and vegetables—an area where automation has lagged compared to row crops like corn and wheat.

Under the leadership of co-founders Brandon Contino and Dan Chi, Four Growers has raised over $15 million and secured eight-figure contracts. With strategic partnerships like Syngenta Vegetable Seeds, the company aims to address labor shortages, reduce food waste, and optimize greenhouse farming globally.

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Robot Research In The News

Upgrading and extending the life cycle of soft robots with in situ free-form liquid three-dimensional printing

As soft robotics continues to evolve, improvements in sensors and movement systems can make older robots outdated, shortening how long they can be used. To address this issue and make soft robotics more sustainable, researchers in Singapore developed a special 3D printing method to upgrade and repair robots directly.

This technique involves printing a specially designed gel right onto the robot’s surface. The gel supports adding new features without needing any extra tools or containers. Using this method, the researchers enhanced a soft robot modeled after a stingray by adding tactile sensors, passive whiskers, and moving hooks. They also repaired damage like tears in the robot's skin and broken whiskers, helping extend its life span.

Meet RAVEN: A Versatile Bird-Inspired Drone

RAVEN, the Robotic Avian-inspired Vehicle for multiple ENvironments, is a drone designed with lightweight, bird-like legs that enable it to walk, hop, and leap into flight. Researchers believe its innovative design could lead to even more versatile robots capable of navigating various terrains.

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Robot Workforce Story Of The Week

Robotics club aims to give disadvantaged students in Clairton new experiences

When Brett Florenz, now 14, saw high schoolers building robots in Clairton City School District, he dreamed of having a similar club for middle schoolers. With support from Superintendent Tamara Allen-Thomas, his vision became a reality. This year, nearly a dozen students eagerly joined Clairton’s new after-school robotics club to design and build robots, preparing for a competition at Woodland Hills.

Clairton, a small, under-resourced district where 77% of students are economically disadvantaged, launched the program with a $250,000 grant from the Eden Hall Foundation and the Will Allen Foundation. The club addresses inequities in STEM access, which many low-income schools face due to high costs of equipment, staff, and resources.

Efforts like Pennsylvania's BOOST initiative and grants have helped fund STEM programs in districts like Clairton and Woodland Hills. These programs foster hands-on learning and critical thinking, skills deemed essential by educators like Will Allen, who emphasizes the importance of problem-solving and teamwork.

Clairton hopes to expand robotics into the school day and extend STEM education to elementary students. For now, the program has created a safe and exciting space for students like 13-year-olds Noah Rosario and Abbigail Grimes.

“It’s nice to build with friends and make new ones,” said Noah. Abbigail added, “We’ve learned so much, and it’s an amazing, safe place to be.”

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Robot Video Of The Week

Online comedian Kai Cenat recently got his hands on 1X’s humanoid robot and had some fun putting it to the test. While the experiments were entertaining, they also highlighted an important reality: these machines can pose unexpected risks without proper safeguards.

A reminder that even as robotics pushes boundaries, safety should always come first!

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Upcoming Robot Events

Dec. 11-12 Humanoid Summit (Mountain View, CA)

Jan. 7-8 UK Robot Manipulation Workshop (London)

Jan. 7-10 CES (Las Vegas, NV)

Jan. 15-17 Conference on Mechanical Engineering & Robotics Research (Barcelona)

Jan. 21-24 Intl. Symposium on System Integrations (Munich)

Feb. 12-14 Intl. Conference on Automation, Robotics, and Applications (Zagreb)

Feb. 24-26 Intl. Conference on Mechatronics and Robotics Engineering (Lille, FR)

Mar. 4-6 Intl. Conference on Human-Robot Interaction (Melbourne)

Mar. 21-23 Intl. Conference on Robotics and Intelligent Technology (Macau)

Mar. 25-27 European Robotics Forum (Stuttgart)

Apr. 23-26 RoboSoft (Lausanne, Switzerland)

Apr. 30-May 1 Robotics Summit (Boston, MA)

May 12-15 Automate (Detroit, MI)

May 17-23 ICRA 2025 (Atlanta, GA)

May 18-21 Intl. Electric Machines and Drives Conference (Houston, TX)

May 20-21 Robotics & Automation Conference (Tel Aviv)

June 30-July 2 International Conference on Ubiquitous Robots (College Station, TX)

Aug. 18-22 Intl. Conference on Automation Science & Engineering (Anaheim, CA)

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