So What Does 2025 Hold For Robotics?
Time to look in the crystal ball and put our predictions on the table
Aaron’s Thoughts On The Week
“A person often meets his destiny on the road he took to avoid it.” - Jean de La Fontaine
It is that time of year again to make those predictions for the coming year. It is somewhat silly because unless you have a time machine, you are just throwing darts….blindfolded…..in the dark…..at hopefully a target. But we do it anyway just to see how well we did.
So How Well Did I Hit My 2024 Predictions?
To recap from my post this time last year, let’s quickly check how I did.
The Autonomous Vehicle Continues To Get Cold Water Pour On It
I’m giving myself an A- on this prediction because I stated that Cruise was DOA and it took till the end of 2024 to happen, but it did.
Even though Waymo continues to do fine, the on-going issues with Tesla and their flawed FSD continues to be a drag on the AV industry.
Robot Sales Rebound, But Not A Record Year
I’ll admit I got a C on this one, because the rebound started halfway through the year.
I expected a better recovery. So while we are recovering, it is not at the pace I expected.
LLMs and Robotics Continue To Merge
Can I say “Nailed It!” So I am going with a solid A on this prediction. However…
This was an easy one and the equivalent of me lowering the basket to 5 feet and slamming on it. We all knew this was coming.
More Public Facing Robots Enter Service
I am going with a B on this prediction because I expected a bit more even though it was easy to see this coming.
A lot more Delivery Robots rolled out, but the terrible regulatory landscape is starting to bite growth.
Standards Organizations and Regulators Start To Catch Up
For this one, especially I was part of making it happen or not, going with a B-, because we did not get ISO 10218 out the door like we should of. It will come in 2025, but MY GOD! WE NEED TO DO BETTER.
We are starting to see the big push to accelerate standards development through initiatives like the IEEE Humanoid Study Group and the newly minted NIST-ASTM Center of Excellence for Emerging Technologies.
So overall, I did pretty well. Maybe a solid B, if I was giving myself a final grade. However, I will admit some of these predictions were already on a good path to happening in 2024. So maybe I should make it harder on myself for 2025. Oddly, though, I think 2025 is going to be a hard one to predict for everyone.
2025 Is Going To Be Wild
That may be an understatement and could be a prediction in itself. Numerous factors, which we will address, will create significant uncertainty in 2025, so I could easily be setting myself up for a huge failure when we revisit these predictions in a year. So let’s dive into it…
Trade War Hits Robot Sales
Every country is on a collision course for a trade war it appears. Nearly every robot has components from various countries, and any trade war that causes tariffs to spike prices will hurt regardless which country you are in. Any price increases that make ROI period grow will led to more negative decisions from the C-Suite in terms of automating.
Also, any trade war is going to hit industries, like manufacturing, that use robots hard. The last trade war back in 2018-19, led to a 1.3% contraction in US factory production. This led to fewer manufacturing jobs, which led to fewer robots being sold.
There is also the impact to consumer robotics. In the last trade war, iRobot, the maker of Roomba, reported a significant drop in sales attributed to the 25% tariff imposed between the US and China. One has to wonder if iRobot can survive another trade war.
Robot Firms Go Under - Including At Least One Humanoid Company
As always, this is a bit of a no-brainer because we are always having robot companies fail, so I added that Humanoid failure as well to spice it up.
As mentioned above, the potential of a global trade war starting in 2025 will be enough to push some robotics firms over. The recent closing of Embodied, the parent of Moxie the Robot, due to funding falling through is probably the beginning of a string of coming failures, with the trade war accelerating the process.
Suppose VCs start pulling funding due to other economic issues, like a falling stock market (brought on by a trade war or other fiscal measures implemented by the new Administration). In that case, I expect at least one humanoid company to fail because it cannot secure another round of funding as it tries to deploy.
Even Boston Dynamics, which Hyundai owns and funds, recently had layoffs because its burn rates were simply too high. One has to wonder what the burn rate for some of these humanoid companies is as they just try to catch Boston Dynamics.
That said, there are just too many people diving into Humanoids now. There is not enough talent, money, or end users with viable use cases to support all of them. Even if end users don’t pull back on their automation budgets due to trade wars or possible recession, there is just not enough to support all of these humanoid companies at this time in their robot journey to productization. Just like how GM concluded it was time to pull the plug on Cruise within the AV industry, there will be similar decisions made by other C-Suites to pull the plug on their humanoid dreams in 2025.
Military Robots Get Scary
One of the long-lasting legacies of the Ukraine-Russia War will be how it ushered in the age of robots on the battlefield. Now that they have proved their value on both the offensive and defensive side, there is no going back. Even though many companies have demanded that their robots not be used in this way, the Genie is out of the lamp, and there is no going back.
Even if that war ends in 2025, there will be enough other global conflicts in which we will see military robots deployed and used now and in the future. Will they be used in ways we disagree with? Yes, they already are for many of us. However, I expect the argument to get even more heated in 2025, and that will probably caused by an event that makes all of us question their use.
Militaries are already discussing humanoids joining the existing robots on the battlefield. When that happens, even if it is in a supporting role, the visual of a humanoid working with a military will be too much for many. Will that happen 2025? Maybe. Will it happen eventually? Absolutely.
The Bright Spot: Ag Robots
I may be going out on a limb on this one, but I think that Agriculture Robots are about to have a stellar year. Not only do I think we are going to have some significant technology breakthroughs in picking speed and accuracy, but I also think farmers across the globe will finally start making the investments because the reality of not having available labor is finally the new reality.
This latter point could be based on the talk of immigration cuts that many countries are having or the realization that we will not have a large enough workforce as populations continue to shrink and age.
I expect mobile robots to be the shining star in this because they will be able to provide quick wins for farmers as they take the first steps to enhance their existing workforce by reducing their travel times so they can focus on other tasks. Similar to how mobile robots transformed warehouses by reducing workers' walking time, we will see the same happening in the fields.
For 2025, I expect to see some big investments in Ag Robots. I wouldn’t even rule out a big acquisition in the space that turns heads.
Standards Efforts Get Bigger
I will return to this one again for 2025 because it is my day-to-day job. So I have a vested interest in making this one a reality.
In May, we will release our IEEE Humanoid Study Group report with a list of recommended standards for humanoids that will need to be developed. That will go to all of the Standards Development Organizations (SDOs) such as ISO, ANSI, UL, NIST, and ASTM. Those efforts should fire off very soon after, because some of them are already starting prior to the report’s release.
We will also finally have the publication of ISO 10218, which has been holding up other standards efforts because the updates to 10218 must be official before their work starts. The publication of ISO 10218 will release a lot of pent-up work that was just waiting for it.
I know that ASTM’s F45 Committee is developing around a dozen standards, with a planned publication date of 2025 for all of them. Several research-to-standards projects will have their research complete in 2025 and then it is just a question of how long until the standard from the research is done.
Finally, expect to see some country-level standards make the news in 2025. While the IEEE Humanoid Study Group report will make recommendations for setting global-level standards, don’t be surprised to see key robot standards from countries like Korea, Singapore, China, the UK, and (of course) the US in 2025.
What Else To Watch For
While many of my predictions are a bit dark, I expect the robotics community to experience many joyful moments. In 2025, we will see some amazing new robots, as we do each year. I expect a lot of laughs as many of us return to the various conferences, expos, and workshops to talk about robots.
I expect humanoids to continue to wow us. I expect to see some fantastic research coming out of colleges and organizations across the globe that keep advancing our field. We will all be amazed as LLMs and Robotics continue to merge. There will be plenty of viral videos to share and discuss.
As more robots enter the world, more people will have more experiences with them than in any other year. We will encounter more robots in our workplaces and out in the world.
There will be more of us that will embrace robots, but unfortunately there will also be more of us that will be against robots. This is because more of us will have an opinion about the role of robotics in our lives than ever before. There will be fewer fence sitters. This is also why it will be critical in 2025 for the robotics industry to better represent itself to the general public. For many people, we will only get one shot at setting a positive attitude with them regarding robotics.
So let me close by saying to all of you - You all have a responsibility to make 2025 a great year for robotics even when it looks bad. This is because 2025 will be only one year in our shared robot journey. Even if it sucks, there will be better days ahead. However, to get to those better days, like always, we need to keep doing the work and doing it right. If we do that, we will keep making robots part of the future we all want.
See you next year.
Robot News Of The Week
Slip Robotics picks up $28M for trailer loading/unloading robots
Truck trailers have been loaded and unloaded the same way for over a century, causing wasted time for drivers and dangerous activity for forklift operators. Slip Robotics announced today it has raised $28 million in Series B funding to automate truck loading and unloading with its SlipBots. Truckers waste 23% of their day at loading docks, while forklift operators rush to move freight, despite 25% of industrial accidents occurring there, according to Slip Robotics. "Modernizing loading and unloading is a major problem to solve," said James Hardiman, general partner at lead investor DCVC. “Slip Robotics is driving significant change in the supply chain industry, akin to the sea freight containerization. Their solutions work and provide real value today.”
Nvidia launches Jetson Orin Nano Super, a powerful AI brain for robotics and edge
Nvidia Corp. launched a compact generative AI developer kit, Jetson Orin Nano Super, which fits in a hand and provides low-cost access to powerful robotics and edge AI for developers, hobbyists, and students. The Jetson Orin family consists of compact, energy-efficient AI supercomputers for autonomous robots and edge systems. Utilizing Nvidia Ampere GPUs and deep learning accelerators, it supports robotics, detection, and network operations across various industries.
Taiwan says it will encourage firms to build more robotics, drones locally
According to Technology and Science Minister Wu Cheng-wen, Taiwan's new initiative, "Chips Team Taiwan" aims to encourage local satellite, drone, and robotics production. He noted that growing defense needs would increase local demand for products from the island's chip design firms, primarily selling to overseas manufacturers.
Apptronik partners with Google DeepMind to advance humanoid robots with AI
As the year of humanoid robot advancements ends, new developments emerge. Apptronik Inc. collaborated with Google DeepMind’s robotics team to merge AI and robotics hardware, enabling humanoid robots to assist in dynamic environments.
“We’re creating a future where humanoid robots tackle global challenges,” said Jeff Cardenas, co-founder and CEO of Apptronik. “By combining our advanced robotics platform with DeepMind’s AI expertise, we’re developing adaptable, safe robots that will transform industries and enhance lives.”
Robot Research In The News
Microrobots and the 'lazy agent problem': Swarm study demonstrates a solution
Picture moving heavy furniture with a team. While every member's effort is vital, ensuring equal contribution poses a challenge. This problem impacts collaboration not just among humans but also within robotic swarms. The effectiveness of group tasks hinges on individual efforts, yet acknowledging each contribution can be tough, particularly at the micrometer scale where tiny robots work together on intricate tasks.
A study published in Science Robotics, led by Clemens Bechinger from the University of Konstanz, tackles this issue. It examines micro robotic swarms—robots controlled by laser spots—and the difficulty of attributing credit to each robot for its role. Without a fair system, some robots might underperform, negatively affecting the swarm’s overall efficiency.
To tackle this issue, researchers utilized a machine learning algorithm and a method to evaluate the contributions of each microrobot, ensuring that every effort is recognized and optimized, thus averting the "lazy agent problem."
"This research proved challenging due to the unpredictability at such small scales. However, by using counterfactual rewards, we were able to precisely manage each microrobot's actions, leading to the efficient operation of the entire swarm," stated Veit-Lorenz Heuthe, a doctoral researcher at the Cluster of Excellence Collective Behavior.
Human hands exhibit remarkable dexterity, able to transfer an object from the fingertips to the palm, thus freeing the fingers to grasp an alternative object. However, most robotic grippers are engineered to hold either a singular object or multiple objects concurrently. Drawing inspiration from the human hand, the researchers have developed a gripper featuring four translational fingers and a conveyor palm equipped with elastomeric hairs. A series of tendons facilitate the fingers in grasping and translating an object to the palm for storage, thereby permitting the hand to pick up and retain multiple objects sequentially. Subsequently, the objects can be individually positioned in designated locations, as illustrated in a desk-tidying task.
Robot Workforce Story Of The Week
Sabrina Bates from Oklahoma City presents the Latino Community Development Agency, an amazing organization in the community that is now offering a robotics team for children. The Southside Robotics Club launched earlier this August, allowing students without school access to robotics to join a team at LCDA.
Robot Video Of The Week
Another week, another new humanoid being presented. Note, we said presented, because we only are seeing a handful actually being deployed. Here is the first full-sized humanoid from Pudu Robotics, the PUDU D9.
Upcoming Robot Events
Jan. 7-8 UK Robot Manipulation Workshop (London)
Jan. 7-10 CES (Las Vegas, NV)
Jan. 15-17 Conference on Mechanical Engineering & Robotics Research (Barcelona)
Jan. 21-24 Intl. Symposium on System Integrations (Munich)
Feb. 12-14 Intl. Conference on Automation, Robotics, and Applications (Zagreb)
Feb. 24-26 Intl. Conference on Mechatronics and Robotics Engineering (Lille, FR)
Mar. 4-6 Intl. Conference on Human-Robot Interaction (Melbourne)
Mar. 21-23 Intl. Conference on Robotics and Intelligent Technology (Macau)
Mar. 25-27 European Robotics Forum (Stuttgart)
Apr. 23-26 RoboSoft (Lausanne, Switzerland)
Apr. 30-May 1 Robotics Summit (Boston, MA)
May 12-15 Automate (Detroit, MI)
May 17-23 ICRA 2025 (Atlanta, GA)
May 18-21 Intl. Electric Machines and Drives Conference (Houston, TX)
May 20-21 Robotics & Automation Conference (Tel Aviv)
June 30-July 2 International Conference on Ubiquitous Robots (College Station, TX)
Aug. 18-22 Intl. Conference on Automation Science & Engineering (Anaheim, CA)
2025 will reward the bold, but not the reckless—robotics founders and investors need resilience, standards agility, and brutal focus on value, not hype. This year is about who survives volatility and redefines what's possible.
I wish for the various robotics fields to achieve greater feats next year as an aspiring robotics professional.